Matt Ryan ($6100)
Projected ownership: 9%
A quarter of the way through the season and Carolina's defense has actually over-performed so far. The Panthers have even won a few games as well. However, their defense definitely has some warts and I believe a veteran quarterback like Matt Ryan will exploit those weaknesses. No team has generated less pressure in 2020 than the Panthers, who've produced a pressure rate of just 15.7%.
To begin the season, Ryan faced two teams who rank in the bottom third of the league in pressure rate at 20.5%. In those two games vs Seattle and Dallas, Ryan combined for a 67.8% completion rate, 723 yards, and a 6:1 TD:INT ratio.
The game total of 53.5 ranks 4th highest on the slate. Atlanta ranks 3rd in offensive snaps through 4 weeks with 281 (70.25/gm). Both Atlanta and Carolina rank in the top 7 in redzone snaps.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6800)
Projected ownership: 19%
Every week we want to identify good chalk from bad chalk. In the case of CEH, and his 3rd highest projected ownership percentage, he's to be considered the former. Only Ezekiel Elliott and Mike Davis project to have a higher ownership in week 5 and you can argue them both as good chalk as well. What I mean by "good chalk" is that sometimes a player is justifiably highly owned based on price, matchup, and alternative options. Edwards-Helaire checks all three boxes.
Helaire is 5th in broken tackles and11th in broken tackles per attempt. In week 5, Helaire faces the Las Vegas Raiders who've missed the 2nd most tackles and rank 28th in adjusted line yards
If polling today, I'd bet most would agree that Edwards-Helaire has had the best fantasy season of all rookie running backs. He enters the week with an opportunity share (carries + targets) of 34.7%, which ranks 2nd on the slate, behind Josh Jacobs and ahead of Ezekiel Elliott. Yet, according to Jeff Ratcliff of FTNdaily.com, Helaire ranks #1 among running backs in expected points minus actual fantasy points scored, at -22.5. The tool helps identify players who are due for positive regression or players who've been outperforming and could be due for a regression to the mean. The only non-QB's who have left more fantasy points on the field so far are A.J. Green and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
Kansas City opened as 13 point favorites vs Las Vegas. I feel confident in firing up the rookie in a smash spot.
Combine the Squib Core Plays with your fantasy sports handicapping skills and build a team of “STATEMENTS”. You don’t draft players, but you draft “STATEMENTS”!
D.J. Moore ($6000)
Projected ownership: 16%
Photo Credit : The Riot Report
Primed for a break out game, DJ Moore is ready to jump back in the drivers seat for the Carolina Panthers. With the emergence of Robby Anderson following the reunion with Coach Rhule, Moore is being overlooked and shouldn't be. Yet to find the end zone this season, Moore is in a very favorable matchup against the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons defense has given up the 10th most fantasy points to wide receivers and are still banged up in the secondary.
With ownership projections coming in almost even between Moore & Anderson I am in full DJ MOORE mode. Although Anderson has the recent success, the talent lies with Moore and I am more than willing to take full advantage of the hype. Moore (16%) Anderson (13%).
Isaiah Oliver ring a bell to anyone?... Nope... This is the matchup defensive back Moore will be facing off against this weekend. Oliver who holds a negative coverage rating and ranks #71 in yards/receptions against should be no threat for the true number one in Carolina.
To slam DJ Moore into a Core lineup has more benefits this week than usual. With the ownership % split, the mediocre play, and other receivers in this price range should pose a difference amongst other lineups from the start. I feel extremely confident Moore finds the end zone this weekend and if he can see close to 90% snaps he will flirt with the 100 yard mark!
George Kittle ($6600)
Projected ownership: 10%
George Kittle is back!!!!! The NFL and more importantly the fans missed him on his short stint sidelined with injury. If you by some reasoned missed it, be sure to check out what he did against the Philadelphia Eagles secondary his first game back.
Rumors have it Jimmy G will be back under center and if so this means even more targets will be coming Kittle's way. When the two are on the field together Garoppolo targets Kittle in over 35% on a per game basis, according to Next Gen Stats.
The Miami Dolphins are one of the worst in defending the Tight End this season ranking 24th in points given up to the position. The best part about this stat to cling to is the fact that the Dolphins have seen Devin Asiasi, Tyler Kroft, Tyler Eifert, and Greg Olsen. Put all 4 of them together and you may find the talent that Kittle possesses himself.
Price tag is high on Kittle and the ownership percentage may continue to climb, but I am not missing out on this matchup opportunity and getting cute at tight end this week. Kittle should reach value plus some this weekend and find value somewhere else in your lineups.
Ezekiel Elliott ($7800)
Projected ownership: 24%
Photo Credit : Si.com
Coming in this week as our Sideline Squib Stud of the week, Zeke is in a locked down position. Much of the contest will host Zeke as one of the highest owned players and for good reason. He is in a must play situation against the New York Giants, following a loss to the Browns where everyone and their mothers scored except for Elliott.
Averaging around 6 receptions a game on top of his ground and pound rushing attack, the RB4 coming into week 5 is set up perfect for another top 5 finish.
The Dallas Cowboys need to win this game, the NFC EAST is a joke right now and if Dallas wants to get back on track there's no better time than against a fellow East rival.
Elliott averages 26 touches, 95 yards, and 1 TD vs the NYG in his 6 career games. This should be his floor heading into the matchup as the two face off.
Lock in Zeke everywhere and move on!